NASA proves it can predict lunar impact sites within half a mile, using a discarded SpaceX rocket stage
A discarded SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage struck the Moon on August 5. NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter photographed the resulting crater six days later, and South Korea's Danuri orbiter independently confirmed NASA's predicted impact site was accurate to within about 0.6 miles.
NASA tested how accurately it can predict where an object will hit the Moon, using a discarded SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage from the January 2025 Firefly Blue Ghost 1 mission as an unplanned real-world test. The stage struck the lunar surface on August 5, and NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter captured images of the new crater six days later: 60 feet wide, under 10 feet deep. Independent astronomers first traced the rocket's trajectory using public data, NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies refined the prediction, and South Korea's Danuri orbiter confirmed the impact site within about 0.6 miles. NASA says the same prediction tools underpin its planetary defense work, which tracks objects that could threaten Earth.