How Voluntary Redistricting Could Change the Midterm Outcome
Voluntary redistricting ahead of the 2026 US midterms is rated to favor Republicans more than Democrats. Cook Political Report (as of Aug 25) rates 8 House districts in FL, MO, NC, TN, TX as switching from Democratic to Republican control, vs 4 in CA moving the other way. Source: Statista.
Ahead of the 2026 US midterm elections, several states have redrawn their congressional maps outside the normal post-census cycle, a wave of voluntary redistricting that started in Texas and prompted a response from California. According to Cook Political Report ratings as of August 25, cited by Statista, Republicans are positioned to gain more House seats from this redistricting push than Democrats. Eight House districts across Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee and Texas are rated as switching from Democratic to Republican control, four of them rated very likely, two likely, two possible. In California, four districts are rated as switching from Republican to Democratic control, three very likely and one possible. A further four redrawn districts, in California, Florida and Texas, are rated as toss-ups, with three favoring Republicans and one favoring Democrats. The figures reflect political ratings as of a specific date, not final election results. Source: Cook Political Report, Ballotpedia, Inside Elections via Statista.