China's grip on rare earths meets rising quantum and defense demand, leaving one profitable US producer to carry supply diversification
Quantum computers and guided weapons run on metals one country refines. China controls about 92 percent of refined NdPr and 98 to 99 percent of separated heavy rare earths like dysprosium, per analysis cited by The Quantum Insider. MP Materials $MP runs the only US rare earth min
Two of the fastest growing demand centers in technology, quantum computing and defense, both depend on a narrow set of metals, and the refining of those metals is concentrated in one country. China controls roughly 92 percent of refined NdPr supply and about 98 to 99 percent of separated heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium, with its share exceeding 80 percent for germanium and around 95 percent for gallium, according to analysis cited by The Quantum Insider. That matters beyond electric motors and wind turbines. Rare earth elements including ytterbium, erbium, europium, neodymium, and yttrium are core inputs for quantum technologies, and researchers have warned that the field faces a supply chain vulnerability tied directly to these minerals. The US response runs largely through a single company. MP Materials $MP operates Mountain Pass, the only working rare earth mine and processing facility in the country, and reported record NdPr output and a 49 percent revenue increase in the first quarter of 2026. It holds a 10 year magnet purchase commitment from the Department of Defense and supply agreements with Apple $AAPL and General Motors $GM, while Lynas Rare Earths builds processing capacity in Australia and Texas. Sources: The Quantum Insider, South China Morning Post, Simply Wall St.